Meanwhile "Vester" GK in 2012 closed practically all its stores in Kaliningrad Region; only 25 stores including 3 hypermarkets were kept. Besides, the group kept franchise hypermarket "Vester" in Kabardino-Balkar Republic. During Q2 – Q4 2012 the chain closed 27 of its stores including 17 hypermarkets. Seven store buildings owned by the chain and located beyond Kaliningrad Region were sold to "Lenta" (2 in Belgorod, 2 in Voronezh, 1 in Orenburg and 2 in Yaroslavl). Trade areas previously rented by "Vester" were occupied by "Evropa" hypermarkets (Stary Oskol), "Magnet" (Ulyanovsk) and "Lenta" (Taganrog); some were converted into malls and part of them was still empty as on April 1, 2013.

Total area of hypermarkets started in 2012 by 25.8% exceeded the area of hypermarkets started in 2011; meanwhile total area of hypermarkets closed in 2012 exceeded similar index of 2011 by 44.2% (this negative dynamics was mainly driven by "Vester" chain). Most impressive increase of trade area in 2012 was demonstrated by "Magnet", "Lenta" and "O'Key" – the named chains provided respectively 20.6%, 15% and 12.7% of total increase of total hypermarket area. Noteworthy, increase of trade areas in hypermarket chain "Magnet" slowed down in 2012: in 2011 with 42 hypermarkets started the chain provided 23.6% of total increase of trade area in hypermarket segment. Among other reasons this trend was determined by the fact that "Magnet" started to develop hypermarket chain "Magnet Semeiny (Family)" with maximum area of one hypermarket 1.5 thousand sq. m. (by January 2013 "Magnet" already started 20 hypermarkets of this format).

Despite large scale investments of "Magnet" in 2012, share of the chain in total increase of trade area declined by 3% (the trend was mainly driven by development of the brand "Magnet Semeiny" with small size hypermarkets) while shares of "X5 Retail Group" and "Metro Cash & Carry" declined respectively by 1.6% and 1%. At the same time share of "Lenta" in market growth increased by impressive 10.4%, of "O'Key" – by 2.5%, of "Auchan" – by 1.7%; other hypermarket chains demonstrated decline of trade area surplus by aggregate 9.2%.

Vibrant development of hypermarket format is to continue during 2013-2015. More than 140 hypermarkets are planned to be started in 2013, however actual number can be smaller due to deferred open dates typical on Russian market of commercial estate.

Most impressive plans for 2013 were announced by "Magnet" (over 60 hypermarkets are to be started); by 2017 the chain is going to have 650 hypermarkets in its chains "Magnet" and "Magnet Semeiny" (approximately 100 hypermarkets are to be started in each chain every year). Second and third large investment programs for 2013 in hypermarket segment were announced by "Lenta" and "O'Key" – these chains plan to start 16-17 hypermarkets each. Vibrant development is also expected for retail chains "Auchan" (15 new hypermarkets under the brands "Auchan", "Auchan City" and "Nasha Raduga (Our Rainbow)"), "Metro Cash & Carry" (6-8 new hypermarkets) and "Evropa" (6 new hypermarkets).

Interestingly, "Auchan" sticks to its plan of increasing the number of hypermarkets on Russian market: from 58 today to 100 to be reached by 2015. However, previously this retailer wanted to have total 150 hypermarkets by 2015 and then fulfillment period for this plan was corrected and the named quantity is expected to be reached by 2017 only. In 2013 "Auchan" plans to start 15 hypermarkets in its chains "Auchan", "Auchan City" and "Nasha Raduga". Besides, during 2013 retailer is going to rebrand 16 "Real,-" hypermarkets acquired by "Auchan" in November 2012 (the deal was approved by Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia in March 2013). "Dixy" announced the launch of new format of standard hypermarkets with maximum area of 14 thousand sq. m. Meanwhile "Megamart" chain is to grow by 2-3 hypermarkets annually during 2012-2015 in Ural and in Perm.

Launch of new chain of discount hypermarkets "NL" ("New Lenta") was announced in March 2013; this project was established by "Lenta's" ex-owners August Meyer and Dmitry Kostygin. During 2014-2016 the company is to open 10 stores in Saint Petersburg; construction of 3 discount hypermarkets is to be started in 2013.

"INFOLine's" experts monitored more than 240 non-capital urban settlements with population over 50 thousand people. It was revealed that 130 out of 240 monitored towns/cities had no hypermarkets by January 1, 2013. This is a good reason to develop this format. Considering large scale development program announced by "Magnet" – to have 650 hypermarkets by 2017 with the average 100 new hypermarkets to be started annually in "Magnet" and "Magnet Semeiny" – urban settlements with no hypermarkets are perfect for expansion of this chain.

In order to forecast future performance of FMCG hypermarkets in Russia "INFOLine's" experts monitored 27 largest federal subjects of Russia and their capitals to estimate their saturation with the review format. In 2012 the highest saturation with hypermarkets among 27 regional capitals was demonstrated by Krasnodar: 127 sq. m. of hypermarkets per 1000 citizens. The leader of Krasnodar hypermarket segment is "Magnet" with its growing multiformat chain of hypermarkets and stores. Maximum number of hypermarkets per 1 million of citizens was registered in Izhevsk – 20.7. Leaders of Izhevsk market are "Magnet" (5 hypermarkets) and "IzhTrading" (4 hypermarkets "IzhTrading" and 1 hypermarket "Tri Banana (Three Bananas)"). Moscow traditionally demonstrated the lowest saturation with hypermarkets – planning control hampers construction of hypermarkets as independent buildings while areas in trade centers available and suitable for FMCG hypermarkets are limited.

Expansion to urban settlements with population under 500 thousand people becomes the major driver of hypermarket segment; many retailers launch new small-size formats for such expansion ("Nasha Raduga" by "Auchan", "Metro Punct" by "Metro Cash & Carry", and small-size formats in "Caroussel" by "Х5 Retail Group", "Magnet Semeiny" by "Magnet" and city version of "Lenta" by "Lenta").

Most promising territories for expansion of hypermarkets – both full-size and small-size – are Central Federal District and Privolzhsky FD: 30 urban settlements with population over 50 thousand people in these Federal Districts had no hypermarkets by January 1, 2013.

29 out of 138 hypermarkets started in 2012 were opened in cities/towns which previously had no stores of this format. For example: 9 hypermarkets were opened in 8 non-capital cities/towns of Central FD (Kostroma had 2 new hypermarkets – "Caroussel" and "Nasha Raduga"); 7 hypermarkets were started in 7 non-capital cities/towns of Privolzhsky FD, 4 hypermarkets were started in 4 non-capital cities/towns of Ural FD, 3 hypermarkets were started in 3 non-capital cities/towns of Fareast FD, 3 hypermarkets were started in 3 non-capital cities/towns of Southern FD, 2 hypermarkets were started in 2 cities/towns of Northwest FD (Mirny in Arkhangelsk Region and Syktyvkar in Komi Republic), and 2 hypermarkets were started in 2 cities/towns of Siberian FD (Kansk in Krasnoyarsk Territory and Biysk in Altai Territory). Interestingly, Saint Petersburg remained the leader in terms of opened hypermarkets in 2012 despite high saturation: 8 hypermarkets ("Prizma" started 3 hypermarkets, "Lenta" started 2 hypermarkets and 1 hypermarket was started by each of the following chains – "Auchan" (in the building where "Real,-" was closed), "O'Key" and "K-RYOKA" (by "Kesko Group" debuting in FMCG format in Russia).

According to "INFOLine's" findings and rating "INFOLine FMCG Retail Russia TOP", "Auchan Group" enhanced its leading positions among FMCG hypermarkets in terms of earnings. In the beginning of 2013 "Auchan Group" was managing 57 hypermarkets with total area of 565.9 thousand sq. m. in Russia.

Most impressive program of new starts in 2013 is being completed by "Magnet" – the chain plans to open 60 new hypermarkets. By 2017 "Magnet" wants to have 650 hypermarkets in its chains, this means at least 8 new starts monthly during 2013–2017. In the beginning of 2013 "Magnet" was the leader in terms of hypermarket quantity in FMCG segment: retailer managed 126 "Magnet" hypermarkets and 20 small-size "Magnet Semeiny" hypermarkets with total area of 412 thousand sq. m.

"INFOLine's" experts forecasted earnings of TOP FMCG chains during 2013-2015 basing on announced development plans with possible M&A deals in TOP 6 not considered. According to this forecast, in 2015 "Magnet" is expected to displace "O'Key" on the fourth line of this rating. "Auchan Group" is forecasted to sustain leadership despite increased investment activity of such Russian retailers as "Magnet", "Lenta" and "O'Key".

* Chain's hypermarkets closed in Samara and Ryazan were not considered; with consideration of those hypermarkets the chain demonstrated negative dynamics in 2012 (- 3,000 sq. m.).

Research of the Company "INFOLine-Analitika"